Eric Kaufmann's Political Demography Resource
Thanks to the support of:
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Conference 2009: 'Demography and Security: the Politics of Population Change', Weatherhead Center, Harvard University, organized by Monica Toft, Jack Goldstone and myself, May 7-8, 2009. Book is planned, edited by Monica Toft, Jack Goldstone and myself, entitled Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions (publisher: Palgrave-Macmillan 2010)
Conference 2006:
Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions, September 29-30, 2006, London School of Economics
Plenary Speakers
Its
All Political:
Why Demography isn’t Just for Demographers Anymore .
Jack Goldstone (PhD Harvard
University) is Hazel Professor and Director of the Center for Global Policy at
George Mason University, and a Scholar at the Mercatus Center. He is the
author of Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (California
1981), and editor of The Encyclopaedia of Political Revolutions (Congressional
Quarterly 1998).
The
Demographic Imperative in Social Change: Political Implications
The
balance of fertility, mortality, and immigration fuels a population's growth.
If important groups are growing at different rates, then their relative sizes
will change over time. This demographic imperative can have a direct effect,
as in the growth of evangelical Protestants in the USA over the last thirty
years. It can have second-order effects too. One example is the well-known
case of Northern Europe's greying welfare states. Entitlements tied to age
succeed if age structures remain stable but can fail if the age structure
shifts. Economic growth and performance respond to age structures too.
Michael Hout (PhD
Indiana University) is professor at the University of California, Berkeley
where he currently chairs the Graduate Group in Sociology and Demography and
the Berkeley Population Center. He and Claude Fischer recently finished a book
on twentieth-century social and cultural trends in the United States that
exemplifies this approach; Century of Difference will be published by
Russell Sage Foundation in Fall 2006. Another book, The Truth about
Conservative Christians with Andrew Greeley, will be published in August
2006 by University of Chicago Press.
Population Shifts and Civil War
Monica Duffy Toft (PhD
University of Chicago) is Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy
School and the Assistant Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic
Studies at Harvard. She was a research intern at the RAND Corporation and served
in the U.S. Army in southern Germany as a Russian voice interceptor. She is the
author of two book manuscripts, a monograph, The Geography of Ethnic
Violence: Identity, Interests, and Territory, and an edited volume, The
Fog of Peace: Strategic and Military Planning Under Uncertainty.
Conference Panel Speakers (with Presentations and Papers where available) by Theme:
Topics:
Differential Fertility and Differential Migration
Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Comparative-Quantitative Approaches
Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Case Studies
Nationalist Responses to Demographic Change and Nationalist Uses of Demography
Demography and Politics in History
The Politics of Immigration and Integration
Book of Abstracts I (alphabetised) - pdf
Book of Abstracts II (alphabetised) - Excel
Differential Fertility and Differential Migration
Sutay Yavuz, Max Planck Institute, Rostock
Ethnic Differences in Fertility Transition in Turkey presentation
Turkey
has reached advance stage of Demographic Transition. This study aims to
investigate determinants of the differential fertility transition pattern of
Turkish and Kurdish women in Turkey.
Valér Veres -Babes-Bolyai University Cluj
Differential Demographics in Transylvania: Ethnocultural or Economic Factors?
An
analysis of differential changes in fertility and natural increase in
Transylvania including the role of ethnicity and economic development on
fertility patterns, measurement issues.
Ram B. Bhagat, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai
Hindu-Muslim Fertility Differentials in India
Hindu-Muslim differentials
in fertility is no more than one child in India. It is not likely that Muslims
will outnumber Hindus in foreseeable future.
Philip Verwimp, Institute of Social Studies, the Hague
Child Survival and Fertility of refugees in Rwanda paper
The
paper researches the differential fertility history of refugee women and
non-refugees in Rwanda. (Paper joint work with Jan Van Bavel, Free University of
Brussels.)
Arvinda Meera-University of Tuebingen
Women's autonomy and fertility: A comparison of tribal and non-tribal women in India
Tribal
women have a lower status, lesser autonomy and higher fertility than non-tribal
women in India.
Bandita Medhi, Arya Vidyapeeth College
Demographic Patterns And Impact On Education In Assam
There
has been a drastic change in the demographic pattern of the State of Assam since
1901. The paper examines the factors affecting these changes and their impact on
educational enrolment.
Apostol Apostolov and Petya Dankova, Varna University of Economics
Ethnicity and
family planning & Labour Emigration (Bulgaria)
A discussion of the impact of socio-cultural, ethnic and religious factors on family planning and labour emigration processes, based on a representative empirical study
Harald Wilkoszewski,
Max Planck
Institute for Demographic Research / LSE
Demographic change and the balance of power in Europe.
In
this paper we examine the effect of differential population growth on the
balance of power in the EU's Council of Ministers.
Wolfgang Lutz and
Vegard Skirbekk -
IIASA (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)
The Low Fertility
Trap Hypothesis: Forces that May Lead to Fewer Births in Europe
The
paper’s hypothesis describes plausible self-reinforcing mechanisms that would
result, if unchecked, in a continued decrease of the number of births in Europe.
Upala Barua , Cotton
College, Assam, India
Cultural And Administrative
Factors On Differential Fertility Rates in Assam, India
This
is a study of the fertility status of two communities pursuing the same
religion but migrated to the State at two distinctly different periods from
two different locations.
Branislav Djurdjev,
University
of Novi Sad
Majorities And Minorities In
Ex-Yugoslav Countries
The
paper considers ethnic changes in the area of former Yugoslavia. In our days
former majorities are stronger in their native countries and weaker in all
other parts. Minorities tend to emigrate.
Ould Isselmou,
Office
National de la Statistique
Fertility Differentials : A
Comparative Study (N & W Africa)
The
study shows the level, trend and differential in fertility among North African
and West African countries.
Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Comparative-Quantitative Approaches
Elizabeth Leahy, Population Action International
The Shape of Things to Come: Population
Age Structures and their Meanings
Description
of the relationship between demography and political stability; analysis of
connections between population age structure and risk of civil conflict in
developing countries from 1970-2004.
Sarah Staveteig,
University of
California, Berkeley
Youthful Age Structure and Ethnic Conflict: Is there a Connection?
One
cascading effect of population growth-age structure-is a predictor of civil war,
but not of ethnic war. However, differential minority age structure appears to
help predict ethnic conflict.
Christian Leuprecht, Royal Military
College/Queen's University, Canada
The demographic security dilemma
Henrik Urdal, Peace Research Institute, Oslo
Censuses Recording, Ethnicity
and Increased Risk of Political Instability and
Violence paper
The
paper addresses the relationship between publishing ethnicity data from
censuses and political stability and violence.
Tamas Makany U. of Southhampton
An Agent-based Model of Crisis-Driven Migration and Ethno-Religious Conflict
An
agent-based model simulates crisis-driven migration and ensuing
ethno-religious conflict; generates migratory patterns based on local crisis,
ethnic tension, demography and breadth of networks.
Does a Demographic
Transition Promote a Democratic Transition?
The authors propose to formulate and test a series of hypotheses that predict the increased likelihood of a drift toward democracy as an autocracy's ethnic population age structures mature
Indra De Soysa,
ISS/NTNU
(Norway)
Dare to be Different!
Ethnicity & Political Terror
This
study will empirically assess the nexus between dissent and repression in
ethnically fractionalized and exclusionary political environments.
Demography, Ethnic Conflict: Case Studies
Eliott
Green, London
School of Economics
Demographic Pressure and
Ethnic Conflict in Contemporary Uganda
Uganda
possesses both extreme ethnic diversity and a high rate of population growth.
I argue here that the combination of these factors means that Uganda will see
more ethnic conflict in the future.
Ricardo Neupert,
UN Population
Program
& Silvino Lopes, NSD Timor L’Este
The demographic component of the east Timorese crisis
This
study analyses the demographic determinants of the recent crisis in East
Timor, which has the form a violent rivalry between the population of the
Eastern and Western regions of the country.
Aitalina Azarova,
Central
European University
Consequences of the change of dominant ethnic group in the Sakha Republic (Russian Federation) paper
Discussion population growth of the Sakha and Russian people in one Russian region. Changing balance of social and political standing has affected the degree of ethnic tension
Mitch
Young,
London School of
Economics
Property Law, Ethnic Fractionalisation and Return Migration in Post-war Bosnia
An analysis of factors affecting the return of refugees and displaced persons to pre-war property holdings in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Renu Bhagat,
The New School for
Social Research, New York
Religion, Race and Caste: Comparing Affirmative Action in the India and the United States
This
paper will examine the role of the state in identity construction in India
and the United States,through Affirmative action plans.
Nationalist Responses to Demographic Change and Nationalist Uses of Demography
Ugur Ungor, University of Amsterdam
Demographic engineering in the 20th century: a comparative
historical-sociological approach
Demographic
engineering is the range of state-sponsored policies to maintain maximum
homogeneity. This comparative paper outlines various episodes of demographic
engineering in the twentieth century.
Tatyana Kotzeva,
Center for
Population Studies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Depopulation in Bulgaria in the Times of Transition: Political and
Scientific Visions
The
presentation will analyse different interpretations and visions of Bulgaria's
depopulation since the early 1990s, mainly nationalistic visions and more
moderate and politically neutral views.
Cynthia Buckley, The University of Michigan
Russia Counts: The Social Construction
of the 2002 Census
This
paper examines the delays, debates and disagreements associated with the 2002
census of the Russian Federation.
Abby Day, Lancaster University
Believing in Belonging: a qualitative analysis of being Christian
for the 2001 census
Seventy-two
per cent of respondents to the UK 2001 census affiliated to Christianity. The
paper explains explorer this data via an intergenerational qualitative research
project.
Hannah Cameron, Brussels School of International Studies
Transnational
Marriage between Britain and the Indian Sub-continent: an evaluation of the
demographic impact
The
proposed paper will consider the demographic impact of transnational marriage,
with reference to marriage between British born Asians and citizens of the
Indian subcontinent.
Vegard Skirbekk &
Katrin Fliegenschnee IIASA
(International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)
New Times, Old Beliefs: Projecting the Future Size of Religions in
Austria
The
paper presents the results of demographic projections for Austria for the next
half century.
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London
The End of Secularisation in the West? presentation paper
An
analysis of differential fertility and secularisation patterns points to a
growing long-term religious percentage of the west European
population
David
Voas, University of Manchester
The Future of Christianity in Europe presentation
European
countries have large subpopulations of people who are neither particularly
religious nor decidedly unreligious. Despite its current size and strength
this group is destined to dwindle.
Caroline Berghammer
&
Dimiter Philipov
Vienna
Institute of Demography
Religiosity and Demographic
Events: a Comparative Study of European Countries
We
study the association between religiosity and young adults' life-course events
in 17 European countries based on 3 theoretical aspects. Theoretical
background and empirical results are discussed.
Jon Anson &
Ofra Anson, Ben Gurion University of the Negev
Religion, Nationalism and
Demography: False Consciousness, Real Consequences
Religion
and nationalism are both social phenomena reflecting in consciousness what
differential fertility reflects in practice: (class) struggles over access to
socially created resources.
Demography and Politics in History
Liam Kennedy, Queen's University Belfast
Did Industrialisation Matter? Ethno-National Conflict in Ulster
Uneven
industrialisation in Ireland shaped the conflict of nationality in Ireland but
the vital link was through demography.
Amy Bailey, University of Washington
Fertility and Revolution: How Does Political Change Influence
Reproductive Behaviour?
I use historical data to link revolution, individualistic ideology and fertility decline. Results indicate revolutions, not institutional political structures, predict the onset of fertility decline.
Margitta Maetzke, Georg August University Goettingen
Production, War, and Reproduction: State Interests in the Welfare State across Time
Implicit
demographic motives in Western welfare policy: Resource-dependent states view
their populations as taxpayers, workers, soldiers, and mothers. Social
policies reflect this resource interest.
The Politics of Immigration and Integration
John
Garcia,
University of Arizona
Global citizenship among Latino immigrants in the United States paper
Examination
of global citizenship among Latino immigrants in the United States;
interactions, orientations,and attachments in country of origin and residence
influencing civic engagement.
Ross Bond,
University
of Edinburgh
Scottish graduate migration:
barriers to belonging?
Describes
recent research on graduate migration in Scotland within a political context
in which increased immigration to Scotland (especially of highly skilled
individuals) is encouraged.
Ludi Simpson,
University of Manchester
Segregation and integration in the UK presentation
Black
and Asian populations are dispersing within the UK. But population growth
enlarges clusters of minorities, identified negatively in media and political
discourse. A review of the evidence.
Anwar
Muhammad, University
of Bergen
From Exclusion to Inclusion:
the Pakistani Community in Norway
This
paper instead of seeing Pakistani immigrants precarious situation in
simplified cultural terms, it presents the situation from political, social
and demographic discourses.
Kiran Bhairannavar,
University
of Delhi
Migration, identity and conflict: the politico-demographic landscape of Assam state, India
Massive
population influx in Assam has permanently changed its demographic landscape
leading to conflicts and emergence of Identity movements having far reaching
consequences.
Andriy Ushakov, Kharkiv National University of Economics
International co-ordination of illegal migration control: Ukrainian
context
Migration
in Ukraine, formerly a socio-cultural phenomenon, is now becoming an ethnic
and national issue.
Migration in
a Stateless Nation: Catalans and 'Immigrants' in the Democratic Transition
National
political entrepreneurs' response to immigration by a different ethnic group,
both in terms of organisational and ideological terms, based on a case study
of 1970s Catalonia.
The New 'Fear of the Moor': Ethnicisation of the Demographic Discourse in
Melilla, Spain
Christian Autengruber,
Andrassy
University, Budapest, Hungary
Ethnic demography and party policy: voter alignment in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia presentation
Philip Howe, Adrian College, Michigan
Voting Across Ethnic Lines in Late Imperial Austria
A
comparison of district- and sub-district-level data over time reveals a
surprisingly high degree of voting across ethnic lines in Late Imperial
Austrian elections.
Eric Kaufmann's ESRC Religious Demography Project Page